Reflection on 2024 Predictions: Trade, Treasury, and Payments Trends

TFG’s Predictions for Trade, Treasury, and Payments in 2024: A Year in Review

As the year 2024 comes to a close, it’s time to reflect on the predictions made at the beginning of the year by TFG regarding the biggest trends in trade, treasury, and payments. Let’s take a look at how these predictions fared in reality.

Prediction #1: Uncertainty Dominates the Macro Landscape
TFG’s prediction that uncertainty would be a major factor in the global macroeconomic landscape in 2024 was proven to be accurate. The year saw challenges such as slowing global growth, inflationary pressures, geopolitical disruptions, and volatility in energy markets. Elections in various countries also added to the complexity, leaving the world on edge. The year reaffirmed that uncertainty is indeed the only certainty.

Prediction #2: Lacklustre Growth in Supply Chain Finance
The prediction of sluggish growth in supply chain finance in 2024 turned out to be broadly accurate. Geopolitical tensions, higher borrowing costs, and reduced risk appetite created a challenging environment for SCF. However, non-traditional financiers like fintechs stepped in to meet demand, and the sector continued to evolve strategically.

Prediction #3: Standards and Frameworks Take Center Stage
The emphasis on developing standards and frameworks for digitalization and ESG in 2024 was on point. Agreements on carbon credits and the adoption of the UNCITRAL Model Law on Electronic Transferable Records highlighted the need for collaborative progress in establishing adaptable solutions for digital and sustainability challenges.

Prediction #4: Growth in Trade Credit Insurance
The prediction of increased demand for trade credit insurance in 2024 was supported by market developments. The ICISA industry report showed steady demand for TCI, driven by evolving global trade dynamics and rising counterparty risks.

Prediction #5: Fintech Survival Hinges on Solving Complex Issues
The prediction that fintechs would face a make-or-break year in 2024 was well-founded. Advancements in AI and blockchain were notable, but financial struggles of some companies raised concerns about the sector’s future.

Prediction #6: Evolution in Payments Infrastructure
While 2024 marked a transformative year for payments infrastructure, the revolution was more evolutionary than revolutionary. Adoption of ISO 20022 expanded globally, but challenges remain in realizing the full benefits of this standard.

Prediction #7: Technology Transforms Treasury Operations
The prediction that technology would aid decision-making in treasury operations was largely accurate. Tools like APIs and AI are becoming mainstays, but challenges like privacy concerns and inconsistent adoption of liquidity management tools persist.

Prediction #8: ESG Remains Central to Business Strategies
The prediction that ESG would remain central to business strategies in 2024 held true, but a more cautious tone emerged over the year. Despite concerns about greenwashing, the outlook for ESG remains promising, with regulatory pressure driving companies to prioritize sustainability.

In conclusion, TFG’s predictions for 2024 were largely on point, reflecting the importance of staying informed, collaborative, and flexible in the ever-evolving trade, treasury, and payments industries. As we look ahead to 2025, the resolution is to continue tracking developments and sharing insights to keep readers informed. Here’s to another year of bold predictions and insightful analysis!
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